DIGITAL ANALYTICS OF ETHNOSOCIAL PROCESSES AS A TOOL FOR THE EARLY IDENTIFICATION OF CONFLICT RISKS

Abstract

The rapid development of digital communication environments has significantly transformed ethnosocial interactions and interethnic relations in modern multiethnic societies. Traditional descriptive approaches are increasingly insufficient for the timely identification of emerging tensions and potential conflicts. This study examines the potential of digital analytics as a proactive tool for the early detection of ethnosocial conflict risks. A methodological framework based on the calculation of ethnosocial indices is proposed, integrating indicators such as migration dynamics, socio-economic conditions, existing conflict factors, and patterns of interaction in the digital environment. To assess the relevance of the proposed approach, an expert survey was conducted among specialists in sociology, political science, and ethnopolitics, confirming the necessity of using digital tools for monitoring ethnosocial dynamics and identifying conflict risks.