THE POLITICAL STRATEGY OF STATE REGULATION OF THE CONFESSIONAL SPACE IN KAZAKHSTAN: A STAGE-BASED AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This article examines the political strategy of state regulation of the confessional space of the Republic of Kazakhstan through stage-based and regional analysis. The main hypothesis of the study is that Kazakhstan’s confessional policy is being implemented in the form of a unified national strategy that does not take into account regional confessional disproportions, which systematically limits its preventive effectiveness. The content analysis reveals that the state normative discourse has passed through three semantic stages — “freedom” → “control” → “security.” The stage-based analysis uncovers the internal logic of the periods of liberalization (1991–2000), institutionalization (2000–2015), and securitization (2015–present). Regional data demonstrate that the territory of Kazakhstan is clearly divided into three zones of confessional political risk: a southern monoconfessional zone, a northern biconfessional zone, and a metropolitan zone of uncertainty. The conclusions of the study may serve as a scientific basis for developing policy recommendations aimed at forming a differentiated regional strategy for regulating the confessional space.